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Predictive Distribution

In the case where one is interested in making a probability statement about the distribution of the random variable of interest, given that one has observed realisations tex2html_wrap_inline2119 one can use the marginal distribution

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which is termed the predictive distribution. In practice, this integral can not generally be calculated, since the analytical form of tex2html_wrap_inline2121 is not known. However, samples may be drawn from tex2html_wrap_inline2121 , in which case the predictive distribution, together with any other distributions may be estimated using the kernel density estimate.



Cathal Walsh
Sat Jan 22 17:09:53 GMT 2000