Wide-Area Traffic: The Failure of Poisson Modeling

Paxson, Vern
Floyd, Sally

Abstract

Network arrivals are often modeled as Poisson processes for analytic simplicity, even though a number of traffic studies have shown that packet interarrivals are not exponentially distributed. We evaluate fifteen wide-area traces, investigating a number of wide-area TCP arrival processes (session and connection arrivals, FTPDATA connection arrivals within FTP sessions, and TELNET packet arrivals) to determine the error introduced by modeling them using Poisson processes. We find that user-initiated TCP session arrivals, such as remote-login and file-transfer, are well-modeled as Poisson processes with fixed hourly rates, but that other connection arrivals are less persuasively Poisson; that modeling TELNET packet interarrivals as exponential grievously underestimates the burstiness of.

Keywords

poisson
traffic
pareto
burstiness
long range correlations
self similar

Notes

Statistical analysis of traffic captured at two internet gateways. A structural modeling explanation of how this may arise. Distributions matched to pareto, lognormal etc. Dsicussion of long range correlations.
  • User initiated connections are relatively close to poisson
  • Computer or timer driven connections are not
  • Self similarity on the scale of tens of seconds or more
  • No natural length for bursts - occur on all scales
  • Burstiness is not limited by mulitplexing - unlike Poisson

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Bibtex

 @ARTICLE {paxson.floyd_failure95,
   author = {Paxson, Vern and Floyd, Sally},
    title = {Wide-area traffic: the failure of {Poisson} modeling},
  journal = {IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking},
   number = {3},
   volume = {3},
    pages = {226 -- 224},
    url = "ftp://ftp.ee.lbl.gov/papers/poisson.ps.Z",
     year = {1995}    
}         

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