% straight forward outline of running of scripts
d(1,:) = [.01 .005 1];
d(2,:) = [.01 .005 .1];
d(3,:) = [.9 .01 .01];
d(5,:) = [.9 .01 1];
d(10,:) = [.05 .005 .1];
%d(6,:) = [.05 .01  .5];
d(6,:) = [.3 .05 .1];
d(8,:) = [.09 .01 .05];
d(7,:) = [10 5 5];
d(9,:) = [.3 .05 .1];
for count=8:8       %note that now"count" is pretty much useless. Have to run basics again in cross val, over rides setting p=d(count,:)
count
    
    display('outline')
    display('basic parameters')
basics_f
% p(1:3)=d(count,:)
% r= p(2) + p(1)*exp(-p(3).*(0:m+m2)); %r= failure rate
%     rel = exp(-r); %reliabilty of a component 
%     pf = 1-rel; %prob component fails before 1 month
    display('simulating fails per month')
fails_per_month_f
    display('sampling from the prior distribution')
    
    obs(1:I+5) = K(1,1:I+5); %this gives I observed #failures in months 1:I. Only one obs for each month. 
                     % note that the first obs is 0 since 0 fails in first
                     % month.    
sampling_f
    display('samping from the posterior using importance sampling')
post_sampling_f
    display('sort and display results')
sort_disp
    display('posterior predictive')
post_pred
    display('cross validation')
    
    if c<=I
        for i=c:I
         i
        recreated(count,i,:) = cross_val(i,obs);
        end
        observations(count,:) = obs;
        upper(c:I) =recreated(count,(c:I),1) + recreated(count,(c:I),2); 
        lower(c:I) =recreated(count,(c:I),1) - recreated(count,(c:I),2);
        hold off
        figure(count)
        plot(c:I,recreated(count,c:I),'g.:')
        hold on
        plot(c:I,upper(c:I),'xb')
        plot(c:I,lower(c:I),'xr')
        plot(2:I,obs(2:I),'k.-')
        hold on
        
        plot(I+1,post_prediction(count),'og')
        plot(I+1,upper(count),'xb')
        plot(I+1,lower(count), 'xr')
        plot((I:I+1),obs(I:I+1),'k.:')
        hold off
    else
        figure(1)
        hold off
        plot(2:I,obs(2:I))
        plot(I:(I+1),obs(I:(I+1)),'k.:')
        hold on     
        plot(I+1,post_prediction(count),'dg')
        plot(I+1,K(1,I+1),'dr')
        hold off
    end
           
end