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Prior Knowledge

There are a number of philosophical issues raised in any discussion on prior probabilities. For further information on such discussion see [38], [27], [5]. It is essential, when considering tex2html_wrap_inline2033 as a random variable, to assign prior probabilities, simply because such must exist. In the case where prior knowledge shows that no particular value or values of tex2html_wrap_inline2033 are more likely than any others, then tex2html_wrap_inline2033 will be uniformly distributed. That is to say, tex2html_wrap_inline2045 . It is important to note that such a statement of initial belief is saying that at the outset, it is believed that for example 100% of cars being rusty is as equally likely to be prevalent as 0%, or indeed any other intermediate value.

A more reasonable situation would be one where cars are being surveyed in the light of previous work and with some knowledge of the materials involved. Then the prior might take the form of a normal distribution with some mean and (perhaps large) variance.

For notational simplicity tex2html_wrap_inline2047 is written and taken to mean tex2html_wrap_inline2037 from here onwards.



Cathal Walsh
Sat Jan 22 17:09:53 GMT 2000