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Approximating the epidemic curve


 
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1. Title Title of document Approximating the epidemic curve
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Andrew David Barbour; Universität Zürich; Switzerland
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Gesine Reinert; University of Oxford; United Kingdom
 
3. Subject Discipline(s)
 
3. Subject Keyword(s) Epidemics, Reed--Frost, configuration model, deterministic approximation, branching processes
 
3. Subject Subject classification 92H30, 60K35, 60J85
 
4. Description Abstract Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure.  The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that are susceptible follows a more or less deterministic course.  In this paper, we show that both of these features are consequences of assuming a locally branching structure in the models, and that the deterministic course can itself be determined from the distribution of the limiting random variable associated with the backward, susceptibility branching process.  Examples considered includea stochastic version of the Kermack & McKendrick model, the Reed-Frost model, and the Volz configuration model.
 
5. Publisher Organizing agency, location
 
6. Contributor Sponsor(s) Australian Research Council (ARC); Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
 
7. Date (YYYY-MM-DD) 2013-05-16
 
8. Type Status & genre Peer-reviewed Article
 
8. Type Type
 
9. Format File format PDF
 
10. Identifier Uniform Resource Identifier http://ejp.ejpecp.org/article/view/2557
 
10. Identifier Digital Object Identifier 10.1214/EJP.v18-2557
 
11. Source Journal/conference title; vol., no. (year) Electronic Journal of Probability; Vol 18
 
12. Language English=en en
 
14. Coverage Geo-spatial location, chronological period, research sample (gender, age, etc.)
 
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